Coppock Curve: The Sorrow Indicator for Long-Term Bottom Confirmation

Introduction: Where Is the Real Bottom of a Bear Market?

BTC drops from $69,000 to $15,000. You buy at $30,000 — and it drops further to $15,000. You buy again at $20,000 — and the true bottom turns out to be $15,200. How do you actually determine when a bear market has truly ended?

The Coppock Curve was created to solve exactly this problem. It specializes in identifying long-term bottoms — it doesn’t identify tops, it doesn’t catch short-term swings, it does one thing: tells you when the bear market has ended and a new uptrend is beginning.

Interestingly, the creator Sed Coppock originally designed this indicator for pastors — they noticed congregants陷入 a “period of sorrow” after stock market crashes and needed to know when that sorrow would end so they could comfort their flock. Hence the Coppock Curve is known as the “sorrow indicator” — when sorrow ends, hope begins.

Indicator Principle: An Exclusive Tool Born for Long-Term Bottoms

The Coppock Curve was proposed by Sed Coppock in 1962, originally published in Barron’s magazine. Its design philosophy is straightforward: do one thing, and do it exceptionally well — identify long-term market bottoms.

Calculation Formula

Step 1: Calculate two rates of change

ROC11 = [(Current Close - Close 11 months ago) / Close 11 months ago] × 100
ROC14 = [(Current Close - Close 14 months ago) / Close 14 months ago] × 100

Step 2: Sum them

Sum = ROC11 + ROC14

Step 3: Weighted Moving Average

Coppock = WMA(Sum, 10)

WMA is a weighted moving average with weights increasing linearly from 1 to 10 (most recent data gets the highest weight).

Why 11 and 14?

Coppock studied historical data and found that markets typically take 11–14 months to fall from a top to a bottom. By adding the ROC of these two periods, when a market begins recovering in both the 11-month and 14-month dimensions, it signals that the “sorrow period” has lasted long enough and the bottom is likely in place.

Signal Interpretation

• Coppock crosses above zero from negative territory: This is the sole buy signal — bottom confirmed, bull market begins
• Coppock in negative territory: Market is still in the “sorrow period” — don’t buy the dip
• Coppock in positive territory: Market is in an uptrend, but no sell signal is provided

Note: The Coppock Curve has no sell signal — it only identifies bottoms, not tops. You need other indicators for exit signals.

Parameters

Default Parameters (Monthly)

• ROC1 period: 11
• ROC2 period: 14
• WMA period: 10

These three parameters were validated by Coppock through extensive historical data and should not be modified.

Crypto-Adapted Parameters

Monthly parameters stay at defaults. For crypto, the indicator can be adapted to shorter timeframes:

Timeframe	ROC1	ROC2	WMA	Notes
Monthly	11	14	10	Standard, do not modify
Weekly	11	14	10	Keep defaults, roughly 3–4 month perspective
Daily	11	14	10	Roughly 2–3 week perspective, suitable for crypto mid-term

Using 11 and 14 on daily charts is reasonable — the 11-day and 14-day rate of change叠加, then weighted and smoothed over 10 days, covers approximately a 3-week bottom confirmation cycle. Crypto bear market bottoms often arrive faster, so the daily Coppock is sufficiently responsive.

Practical Applications

Scenario 1: BTC Bear Market Bottom Confirmation — The 2022 $15,000 Bottom Signal

BTC fell from $69,000 in 2021 to $15,000 in 2022.

Monthly Coppock signals:

• January 2022: Coppock = -25 (deep sorrow zone)
• June 2022: Coppock = -15 (still negative but beginning to recover)
• November 2022: Coppock = -5 (approaching zero line)
• January 2023: Coppock crosses above zero → Bottom confirmation signal

BTC was around $16,500 in January 2023 when the monthly Coppock crossed above zero, confirming the bottom. BTC then embarked on a long bull run.

Action: Enter long when the monthly Coppock crosses above zero — one of the most reliable long-term bottom signals available.

Scenario 2: Mid-Term Bottom Confirmation — Daily Coppock in a Pullback

BTC pulled back from $105,000 to $88,000 in March 2026, then stabilized.

Daily Coppock signals:

• During the pullback: Coppock fell from positive territory to negative, reaching -12
• After $88,000 stabilization: Coppock recovered from -12 to -3
• Breaks above zero: Coppock moves from -3 to +2 → Mid-term bottom confirmed

Action: Enter long when the daily Coppock crosses above zero from negative territory, confirming the mid-term pullback has ended.

Scenario 3: Filtering False Bottoms — BTC’s Multiple “Seemingly Stabilized” Signals During Decline

BTC dropped from $100,000 to $70,000, appearing to stabilize twice at $85,000 and $75,000.

Coppock’s filtering ability:

• At $85,000: Many claimed “the bottom is here,” but Coppock was still at -18 (deep negative) → Not the bottom
• At $75,000: Short-term bounce but Coppock still at -10 → Still not the bottom
• After $70,000: Coppock starts recovering but hasn’t reached zero → Bottom approaching but unconfirmed
• When Coppock crosses zero: BTC around $72,000 → Bottom confirmed

Coppock helps you avoid buying dips when the market “seems to stabilize” but is still declining — only a Coppock crossover above zero signals a reliable bottom.

Common Mistakes

1. Expecting Coppock to Provide Sell Signals

Coppock only identifies bottoms, not tops. If you need sell signals, use MACD, RSI, or other top-identification indicators. Don’t treat Coppock declining from positive territory as a sell signal — that’s merely slowing momentum, not necessarily a top.

2. Using Coppock on Very Short Timeframes (Below 4-Hour)

Coppock was designed for monthly and weekly long-term bottom confirmation. On 4-hour charts, Coppock changes too frequently — “bottom signals” may appear every few days, completely undermining the indicator’s purpose of identifying long-term bottoms.

3. Modifying the Core 11/14/10 Parameters

These parameters were rigorously validated through historical data by Coppock. Arbitrary changes破坏 the mathematical foundation — for instance, changing to ROC(5)+ROC(8) would no longer be a Coppock Curve but just a generic rate of change indicator.

4. Entering Before Coppock Crosses Zero

Coppock recovering from -15 to -5 looks promising, but it has not yet crossed above zero — the bottom signal remains unconfirmed. Entering early means buying in negative territory, which is exactly the mistake Coppock helps you avoid.

Combinations with Other Indicators

Coppock + MACD: Bottom Confirmation + Trend Tracking

• Coppock crosses zero (bottom confirmed) → MACD golden cross confirms upward trend → Enter long
• Coppock tells you when to buy the dip; MACD tells you whether the trend has started
• One judges timing, the other judges direction

Coppock + RSI: Long-Term Bottom + Short-Term Momentum

• Coppock crosses zero + RSI recovering from low levels: Long-term bottom + short-term momentum恢复
• Coppock in negative territory + RSI below 30: Market in extreme sorrow, bottom unconfirmed — continue waiting

Coppock + Volume: Bottom Confirmation + Money Return

• Coppock crosses zero + monthly volume开始 increasing: Bottom confirmed + money flowing back, double signal
• Coppock crosses zero + volume unchanged: Bottom可能 confirmed but money hasn’t returned — enter cautiously

Summary

The Coppock Curve is the only indicator specifically designed to identify long-term bottoms — it doesn’t judge tops, doesn’t catch short-term swings, doesn’t track trends. It does one thing: tells you when the bear market’s “sorrow period” has ended.

Key takeaways:

1. The sole signal: crossing above zero from negative territory — bottom confirmed
2. No sell signal — use other indicators for top identification
3. 11/14/10 parameters should not be modified — these were historically validated
4. Monthly and weekly charts are most suitable — daily works too, but avoid shorter timeframes
5. Don’t buy the dip while Coppock is still negative — that’s exactly the mistake it helps you avoid
6. Combine with MACD for trend direction confirmation and volume for money flow confirmation

For more practical methods, see Dimen Trading.