Ratio Risk-Reward

O Ratio Risk-Reward (R:R), também chamado payoff ratio, é a métrica mais fundamental de trading — define quanto você risking vs. quanto você pode gain em cada trade. É simples em concept mas profound em implication: R:R determina se seu sistema é profitável, independentemente de win rate.

Definição

Risk-Reward Ratio = Potential Loss / Potential Gain

Expresso como R:1 (risk : reward):

• R:R de 1:2 → risking 1 unit para gain 2 units
• R:R de 1:3 → risking 1 para gain 3
• R:R de 1:1 → risking 1 para gain 1

Em R-multiples (unit de risk = 1R):

• Win de 2R = gain de 2 × risk amount
• Loss de 1R = loss de risk amount

A Matemática que Matters

Expectancy Formula

Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win R) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss R)

Win Rate	Avg Win	Avg Loss	Expectancy
40%	3R	1R	(0.4×3) - (0.6×1) = 0.6R ✅
50%	2R	1R	(0.5×2) - (0.5×1) = 0.5R ✅
60%	1.5R	1R	(0.6×1.5) - (0.4×1) = 0.5R ✅
70%	0.8R	1R	(0.7×0.8) - (0.3×1) = 0.26R ✅
80%	0.5R	1R	(0.8×0.5) - (0.2×1) = 0.2R ✅
35%	2R	1R	(0.35×2) - (0.65×1) = 0.05R ✅
30%	2R	1R	(0.3×2) - (0.7×1) = -0.1R ❌

Key Insight

Win rate alone não determina profitability. Um trader com 40% win rate e 3R payoff é mais profitable que um com 80% win rate e 0.5R payoff.

O R:R mínimo para profitability:

• Se win rate = 50% → need R:R > 1:1 → avg win > 1R
• Se win rate = 40% → need R:R > 1:1.5 → avg win > 1.5R
• Se win rate = 33% → need R:R > 1:2 → avg win > 2R

Optimal R:R

Não Existe “Optimal Universal”

R:R depends de:

• Trading style: scalpers (low R:R, high WR) vs. trend followers (high R:R, low WR)
• Market conditions: trending (higher R:R possible) vs. ranging (lower R:R)
• Setup type: OB entries (1:2-3) vs. breakout entries (1:1-2)
• Timeframe: intraday (1:1-2) vs. swing (1:2-4) vs. position (1:3-10)

The R:R vs. Win Rate Trade-off

Higher R:R targets → lower win rate (targets further → less likely reached) Lower R:R targets → higher win rate (targets closer → more likely reached)

Target R:R	Typical Win Rate	Expectancy
1:0.5	75-80%	marginal
1:1	50-55%	marginal
1:1.5	45-50%	moderate
1:2	40-45%	good
1:3	30-35%	good
1:5	20-25%	good if achievable

Minimum R:R Recommendation

Para most traders: 1:2 minimum

• This allows profitability com win rate > 33%
• Provides cushion para execution errors
• Sustainable across different market conditions

Setting R:R Targets

Structural Method (SMC-based)

Target = próximo structural level:

• OB entry bullish → target próximo OB bearish ou supply zone
• Target distance defined por market structure, não arbitrary ratio

Exemplo: OB bullish em R$28, próximo supply zone em R$32 → R:R = (32-28)/(28-27) = 4:1

Fixed Ratio Method

• Always target 2R minimum
• Reject trades com R:R < 1:2
• Accept trades com R:R ≥ 1:2

Adaptive Method

• Adjust target based em market conditions:
• Trending market → targets further (1:3-5)
• Ranging market → targets closer (1:1.5-2)
• Volatile → wider targets (room for noise)

R:R e Position Sizing

R:R affects position sizing indirectamente through risk amount:

• Entry R$30, Stop R$27 → risk = R$3
• Target R$36 → R:R = 1:2
• Position = (Account × 1%) / R$3 = shares

Se stop moves to R$28 (risk = R$2):

• Same risk amount → position size increases
• Same target → R:R = 1:3 (better)
• BUT: tighter stop → more likely to be hit → lower win rate

Trade-off: tighter stop → better R:R but lower win rate. Wider stop → worse R:R but higher win rate.

R:R Real vs. R:R Planned

Planned R:R

• Based on entry, stop e target antes de trade
• “This trade has 1:3 R:R”

Real R:R (Average)

• Based on actual outcomes over many trades
• Average win R / Average loss R
• Often differs significantly de planned

Reasons:

• Early exits (profit taken at 1R instead of 3R planned)
• Widened losses (stop moved away → loss > 1R)
• Partial exits (50% at 1R, 50% at 3R → avg = 2R)

Track Real R:R

Journal reveals true R:R — don’t assume planned = real. Most traders’ real R:R é significantly worse than planned because of early exits e widened losses.

Conclusão

Risk-Reward Ratio é a mathematical foundation de trading profitability. Win rate matters, but R:R matters more — because even mediocre win rates com good R:R produce positive expectancy. Para investidores brasileiros, target minimum 1:2 R:R, use structural levels para targets, track real vs. planned R:R, e never sacrifice R:R para higher win rate. The math is clear: positive expectancy = sustainable profitability, e R:R is the key variable.

Ratio Risk-Reward